Is China copying the old imperial Japan? 中國是否在抄襲舊的日本帝國？ Victor Davis Hanson Victor Davis Hanson＠Townhall Taimocracy翻譯 20140109

【Comment】

The article of Victor Davis Hanson was written in 2014. 

Like other, the insights need some 5 year time to become policy or strategy of the US.

The idea was new in 2014.  However, it has become common sense in 2018.

Is China copying the old imperial Japan? 中國是否在抄襲舊的日本帝國？    Victor Davis Hanson Victor Davis Hanson＠Townhall   Taimocracy翻譯   20140109

In the 1920s, Japan began to translate its growing economic might -- after a prior 50-year crash course in Western capitalism and industrialization -- into formidable military power.

在20世紀20年代，在經過50年西方資本主義和工業化的50年速成課後，日本開始將其不斷增長的經濟實力轉化為強大的軍事力量。

At first, few of its possible rivals seemed to care.  America and condescending European colonials did not quite believe that any Asian power could ever dare to threaten their own Pacific interests.

起初，有可能的競爭對手似乎不在乎。美國和居高臨下的歐洲殖民者並不相信，有亞洲大國敢威脅自己的太平洋利益。

Japan had been a British ally and a partner of the democracies in World War I.  Most of its engineering talent was trained in Britain and France.  The West even declared Japan to be one of the "Big Five" world economic powers that shared common interests in peace, prosperity and global security.

日本曾是英國的盟友，與一次大戰中民主國家的合作夥伴。大多數工程人才都在英國和法國受訓過。西方國家甚至宣稱日本是五大世界經濟強國之一，與日本在和平，繁榮和全球安全方面分享共同利益。

Occasional parliamentary reforms had convinced many in the West that Japan's growing standard of living would eventually ensure cultural and political liberality.

偶爾的議會改革，使西方許多人相信：日本不斷提高的生活水準，最終會確保文化和政治的自由。

That was a comforting dream, given that by the 1930s Americans were disillusioned over the cost of their recent intervention in the Great War in Europe.  They were weary of overseas engagement and just wanted a return to normalcy.  A terrible decade-long depression at home only added to the popular American desire for isolation from the world's problems.

這是一個令人欣慰的夢想，因為到了20世紀30年代，美國人對他們最近干預歐洲大戰的代價感到失望。他們厭倦了海外事務，只是想恢復正常狀態。國內長達十年的可怕蕭條，只會增加美國人對世界問題的孤立感。

Americans sympathized with China's security worries -- but not enough to do much other than hector Japanese military governments with haughty sermons about fair play and international law, and threaten to impose crippling embargoes.

美國人對中國的安全擔憂表示同情 - 但除了抨擊日本軍政府，及關於公平競爭和國際法，且威脅要施加嚴厲的禁運的口惠外，他們還做得不夠。

Japan ignored such sanctimoniousness.  Instead, it harangued its Asian neighbors on the evils of Western colonialism and the need for them to combine under Japan's own tutorship to reassert their Asian influence in world politics.

日本無視這種道貌岸然的言行。相反的，它在西方殖民主義的邪惡上抨擊其亞洲鄰國，並且要他們在日本的領導下團結起來，在世界政壇重申其亞洲影響力。

The League of Nations did nothing when Japan began colonizing Manchuria in 1931.  Westerners seemed more impressed by the astonishing rate of Japanese economic progress and growing armed clout than they were determined to stop Japanese aggression.

1931年日本開始殖民滿洲時，國際聯盟沒有採取任何行動。西方人對日本經濟進步的驚人速度和武器影響力，比他們決心阻止日本侵略更令人印象深刻。

By 1941, few Americans were even aware that the Imperial Japanese Navy had almost magically grown more powerful than the Pacific fleet of the United States in every category of battleships, carriers, cruisers, destroyers and submarines.  The idea that Japan was waiting for an opportune moment to exploit American weakness, at a time when Europe was convulsed in war, would have seemed absurd to most Americans.

到1941年，很少有美國人甚至意識到：日本帝國海軍神奇地在各類戰艦、航母、巡洋艦、驅逐艦和潛艇中，幾乎變得比美國太平洋艦隊更強大。在歐洲戰爭激烈的時候，日本正在等待適當時機利用美國弱點。對大多數美國人來說，這觀點毫無可能。

The 1940 American relocation of its Pacific Fleet home port from San Diego to an exposed Pearl Harbor was supposed to deter Japan.  But the Japanese interpreted such muscle-flexing as empty braggadocio, if not more foolhardily symbolism.

1940年美國將太平洋艦隊的主要港口，從聖地亞哥搬遷到一個暴露的珍珠港，並認為這應該會阻止日本。但是，日本人將秀肌肉視為空殼，頂多是更愚蠢的象徵。

The attack on Pearl Harbor followed.

隨後襲擊珍珠港。

Substitute communist China for imperial Japan, and the same thing is now occurring in the Pacific. China believes it is finally time to make its military reflect its enormous economic power.

若我們用共產主義的中國代替帝國的日本，同樣的事情現在發生在太平洋。中國認為，現在是讓軍隊反映其巨大的經濟實力的時候了。

Chinese armed forces are growing while America's are shrinking.  China does not like visiting American blowhards -- most recently, Vice President Joe Biden -- lecturing them on human rights, especially when American power, both military and economic, appears to be waning.

中國軍隊正在增長，而美國正在衰弱。中國不喜歡到訪的美國人講高調 - 最近，副總統喬拜登 – 竟然提及人權，特別是當美國的軍事和經濟力量，似乎正在減弱時。

If the Japanese of the 1930s once talked of Western decadence and American frivolity, so too the Chinese now sense that American global influence is not being earned by the current generation of Americans that enjoys the high life on $17 trillion in borrowed money, much of it from China.

若20世紀30年代的日本人，曾經談過西方的頹廢和美國的輕浮，那麼中國人現在也會感覺：美國的全球影響力，並不是由擁有17兆億美元借款的這一代美國人所賺到的，因為其中大部分資金來自中國。

China likewise senses growing American isolationism, hears parlor talk about the U.S. reducing its nuclear arsenal, and notices America's new habit of distancing itself from allies.

中國同樣感受到日益增長的美國孤立主義，聽到談論美國減少其核武庫，並注意到美國與盟友保持距離的新情勢。

Americans once talked tough about Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Libya and Syria.  But China tuned out that empty rhetoric and instead noted that we abandoned Iraq after the successful surge, are exhausted by Afghanistan, were humiliated by Bashar Assad in Syria, and were seemingly paid back with Benghazi after removing Muammar Gadhafi in Libya.  China is reassured that what America says and what America does are not quite the same things.

美國人曾經對伊拉克，伊朗，阿富汗，利比亞和敘利亞採取強硬態度。但是，中國的認識是：美國在戰爭成功後放棄伊拉克，被阿富汗耗盡國力，被敘利亞的阿薩德羞辱，並且在利比亞剷除格達費後似乎已經失去班加西。中國對美國所言的和美國所為，並不完全相同。

More importantly, the Chinese also appear to hate the Japanese in the same way the latter apparently despised the former in the 1930s.  China resents Japan's undeniable lack of contrition over the approximately 15 million Chinese killed by Japanese aggression in World War II.  The Chinese also sense that Japan may be a has-been power, with an aging, shrinking population; energy woes; a sluggish, deflationary economy; and increasingly without its once ubiquitous American patron at its side.

更重要的是，中國人似乎也憎恨日本人，就像在20世紀30年代後者明顯鄙視前者一樣。中國不滿日本對第二次世界大戰中，被日本侵略殺害的大約1500萬中國人的無可挽回的懺悔。中國人也認為日本已過氣，是一個人口老化並減少的國家；能源困境；經濟不景氣，通貨緊縮；曾無處不在的美國越來越不支持它。

China accepts that the U.N., like the old League of Nations, is useless in solving global tensions, and prefers that it is so.

就像舊的國際聯盟一樣，中國認定聯合國在解決全球緊張局勢方面毫無用處，而且更喜歡它這樣。

Add everything up and China seems about as confident of the future as Japan once was in the 1930s.  It is as eager to teach Japan a lesson, as Japan once did China.

加上其他因素，中國就像日本曾經在20世紀30年代一樣，對未來充滿自信。就像日本曾經對中國做過的，中國渴望教訓日本。

America once again appears confused by these radical changes in the Pacific.  That is, until someone in the region tries something stupid -- once again.

美國再次對太平洋地區的這些根本變化感到困惑。亦即，直到該地區某個人再次重蹈覆轍，才會幡然醒悟。