愛錢失歐洲，變態丟世界

【Comment】

根本想不到，終結美國世紀的會是美國總統，而且時間如此快速，沒幾個月。

我還是想到SALT與Richard Sorge，也不一定是川普，可能是女婿。

紐時稱梅克爾揭明新現實：美國領路的時代結束    聯合20170529      

當世人還在思考美國總統川普勝選的全球後果，德國總理梅克爾28日首先發難，明指川普主政的美國已不再是可以信靠的夥伴，歐洲必須獨立自強。

梅克爾28日在慕尼黑為9月國會選戰舉行的造勢活動中告訴民眾：「我們可以信靠別人的時代，在相當程度上已經過去，這是我過去幾天的體驗。」她指的是她上周在北大西洋公約組織（NATO）峰會和西西里七國集團（G7）峰會上與川普交鋒的心得。

梅克爾同時勾勒歐洲今後的布局，號召歐洲人「為自己的命運奮鬥」，與美、英維持友好，但強調敦睦馬克宏主政的法國，共圖歐洲的未來：「德國能夠協助之處，就會協助，因為歐洲好，德國才會好。」

紐約時報引述前美國駐NATO大使、現任智庫「芝加哥全球事務委員會」會長達爾德說，「美國領路而歐洲跟隨的時代結束了」，今天美國在幾乎每個關鍵議題上與歐洲背道而馳，梅克爾之言揭明這個新現實。

川普思想與梅克爾歐洲共榮的立場也南轅北轍。達爾德指出，「美國優先」政策聚焦於狹隘的自我利益，拋棄協助盟國強大、以領導全球追求共同價值與利益來提升美國安全與繁榮的理念。

川普團隊誇言他九天出訪輝煌成功，其實行跡所至，嫌隙滋生，紐時特別舉出巴黎氣候協定是美國與盟邦分裂的最鮮明代表。梅克爾說，協定攸關全球，而G7峰會上，「關於氣候的討論非常困難，更別說不如人意」。 她說：「那是六對一，算入歐洲的話，是七對一」。G7會後，六國自行發表聲明，川普不置一詞。

華盛頓郵報分析指出，川普勝選衝擊全球政治：與美國利益衝突的國家，可能趁美國內部亂象而伺機得利，美國盟邦則必須調整作法，尤其在安全方面，不再盡信一個選出川普這麼個叵測總統的國家，今後押寶時留意避險。

華郵說，美國政府決定不再像過去那麼需要盟邦，盟邦正開始自尋安排，如此將減損美國對盟邦行事與決策的影響力。

德國是否欠美國大筆金錢？ 德國防長算給你看    聯合20170320

德國國防部長范德賴恩19日駁斥川普所稱、德國在防務上積欠北大西洋公約組織（NATO）和美國「大筆金錢」之說。

范德賴恩聲明說，「德國對NATO沒有欠帳」，而且，雖然NATO要求成員的國防預算在2024年之前達到各國國內生產毛額（GDP）的2%，但是只從NATO防務的角度來看這項要求，是錯誤的。

也就是說，德國目前的防衛支出，就不止GDP的2%，因為防衛支出包括支援聯合國維和部隊、德國的歐洲任務，以及德國對反恐戰爭的貢獻。

川普17日在白宮會晤德國總理梅克爾，當著她面前批評NATO許多成員積欠這個組織「大筆金錢」，只是沒有指名德國。但他18日大早難忍手癢，還是在推特挑明德國「欠NATO和美國大筆金錢，美國為德國提供強大，而且非常昂貴的防衛，（德國）必須多付些錢」。

這則推文不但引起范德賴恩聲明反駁，也引來歐巴馬政府的常駐NATO代表達爾德說話。達爾德說：「對不起，總統先生，NATO不是這樣運作。美國花多少錢協防NATO，是由美國自己決定的。NATO防務不是金錢交易，也就是說，不是NATO成員付錢請美國防衛他們。美國是基於條約義務而做這件事。」

范德賴恩表示，人人都希望防衛費用公平分擔，但公平分擔的意思應該包含「現代的安全觀念」，而「現代」的安全觀念包括NATO現代化、歐洲防衛聯盟，以及對聯合國的投資。

Europe can no longer rely on ‘others,’ Merkel says after Trump’s visit    WP 20170528

LONDON — German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Sunday declared a new chapter in U.S.-European relations after contentious meetings with President Trump last week, saying that Europe “really must take our fate into our own hands.”

It was the toughest review yet of Trump’s trip to Europe, which inflamed tensions rather than healed them after the U.S. president sparred with the leaders of Washington’s closest and oldest allies on trade, defense and climate change.

Merkel, Europe’s de facto leader, told a packed beer hall rally in Munich that the days when her continent could rely on others was “over to a certain extent.  This is what I have experienced in the last few days.”

The comments came as Europe watches Britain preparing to leave the European Union and faces antagonism from Washington.

Merkel said that Europe’s move toward self-reliance should be carried out “of course in friendship with the United States of America, in friendship with Great Britain and as good neighbors wherever that works.”

It was an unusually stark declaration from the normally cautious head of Europe’s most powerful economy, and a grim take on the transatlantic ties that have underpinned Western security in the generations since World War II.  Although relations between Washington and Europe have been strained at times since 1945, before Trump there has rarely been such a strong feeling from European leaders that they must turn away from Washington and prepare to face the world alone. 

The German leader received a minute-long ovation for her comments, which came as she seeks to whip up voter support ahead of September elections.  Although her message was partly aimed at her electorate, it was a measure of how badly relations have deteriorated with Trump’s United States that hitting Washington might win votes, while working with it could be perilous.

The remarks were a clear repudiation of Trump’s troubled few days with European leaders, even as Merkel held back from mentioning the U.S. president by name.  On Thursday, Trump had harsh words for German trade behind closed doors.  Hours later, he blasted European leaders at NATO for failing to spend enough on defense, while holding back from offering an unconditional guarantee for European security.  Then, at the Group of Seven summit of leaders of major world economies on Friday and Saturday, he refused to endorse the Paris agreement on combating climate change, punting a decision until this week.

Merkel’s comments were similar to some she made shortly before Trump’s inauguration in January.  But they carry extra heft now that Trump is in office — and after Trump had a days-long opportunity to reset relations.  Instead, by most European accounts, he strained them even more.

“The belief in shared values has been shattered by the Trump administration,” said Stephan Bierling, an expert on transatlantic relations at Germany’s University of Regensburg.  “After the inauguration, everyone in Europe was hopeful that Trump would become more moderate and take into account the positions of the G-7 and of NATO.  But the opposite has happened.  It’s as if he is still trying to win a campaign.”

Trump, who returned from his nine-day international trip Saturday, had a different take.

The U.S. president traveled to Saudi Arabia, Israel, Rome, Belgium and Sicily, Italy.

“Just returned from Europe.  Trip was a great success for America.  Hard work but big results!”  Trump wrote on Sunday, reviving a prolific Twitter habit that had slackened during his days on the road.

But many European leaders emerged from their meetings with Trump filled with fresh worry.  Trump was far more solicitous toward the autocratic king of Saudi Arabia earlier in the week, telling him and other leaders of Muslim-majority countries — many of them not democratically elected — that he was not “here to lecture.”  Days later in Brussels he offered a scathing assessment of Washington’s closest allies, saying they were being “unfair” to American taxpayers.

The practical consequences of the rift remain uncertain.  The United States remains the largest economy in the world, and its military is indispensable for European security, putting a clear limit on Europe’s ability to declare independence.  American consumers also form an important market for European products — including the German BMWs that Trump complained about in closed-door meetings in Brussels, according to German press accounts.

Nor is Europe united in its approach to Trump: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has cracked down on critics at home, has embraced the U.S. leader.  British Prime Minister Theresa May also has tried to maintain ties, though that’s in part because she needs partners as she leads her country out of the European Union.

Yet even as Merkel positions herself ahead of the election, the message could be the signal of a shift away from the United States, perhaps even one that could outlast Trump’s time in office, and that would weaken U.S. global power over the long term.  European leaders are developing plans to deepen military cooperation independently of the United States.  They are also reaching out to economic partners in Asia that Trump has spurned.  All of those shifts will have consequences that extend years, analysts say.

Cliff Kupchan, chairman of the Eurasia Group of analysts, said Trump’s performance in Europe left wounds that could come back to haunt the United States.

“Trump is creating the biggest transatlantic rift since the Iraq War, perhaps even since WWII,” he said in an email.  “This leaves the U.S. exposed.  If the Iran nuclear accord flounders, for example, Europe may well not end up on Trump’s side of a dangerous crisis.”

Conservative Trump critic William Kristol, who edits the Weekly Standard magazine, wrote on Twitter: “Merkel's comments today are a reminder that Trump’s failures are, while he’s president, also America’s failure, and damage America.”

The landslide election in France of President Emmanuel Macron this month has revived hopes for Franco-German cooperation on efforts to bolster European defense initiatives.  European leaders want to coordinate defense purchasing and do more to have standing military capabilities that are deployable outside NATO command structures, where the United States is the dominant force. 

Germany raised its military spending by $2.2 billion this year, to $41 billion, though it remains far from being able to stand on its own militarily.

Merkel and Macron have vowed to work together to further the pro-globalization agenda that Trump stands against.

Merkel’s comments were not the only sign Sunday of a Europe determined to hit back. Macron acknowledged that he came prepared for his handshake with Trump, who likes to throw others off balance with a firm yank of the arm. Macron appeared to force Trump to keep shaking hands even after the U.S. leader tried to disengage.