“I'm going to make another prediction,” Allan Lichtman told The Washington Post Friday. “This one is not based on a system; it's just my gut. They don't want Trump as president, because they can't control him. He's unpredictable. They'd love to have Pence — an absolutely down-the-line, conservative, controllable Republican. And I'm quite certain Trump will give someone grounds for impeachment, either by doing something that endangers national security or because it helps his pocketbook.”
俺來事後聰明一下：
回覆刪除幾個傳統民主黨的鐵票州變天（五大湖旁邊的幾個州），這就讓希拉蕊掛了，Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio，Wisconsin. 這些州傳統上都不可能共和黨贏的，卻意料之外完全垮了。
那為何這些州翻臉？原因是這些州都是重工業州，工廠很多都關門，因為都轉到中國製造了。川普競選要打中國貿易，正好打中失業選民。這些州的大都選民就是老白男。
我的意思是：單純計算選票的話，川普沒有贏。
刪除但川普贏。
所以是制度使川普勝出。
或者
川普陣營精準估算某幾個州的少數選票勝出，可以造成集體勝出。
這就是「很不簡單的能力」了
川普說他只要改變策略，還是可以贏得總票數。
刪除以過去未完成式講過去？
刪除http://www.101newsmedia.com/news/28120
刪除川普表示：「若按照普選票來決定勝負，會在加州、紐約以及佛州等大城市舉辦更多場造勢會，同時也會贏得更輕鬆。」
也許需要探討的其中一個原因是
回覆刪除為什麼民調會有所偏差
而且是這種偏差法
"重工業州，工廠很多都關門，因為都轉到中國製造"？？？
回覆刪除懂得什麽是重工業麽？哪来的重工業轉到中國製造？
川普贏在賽局與加權的混合應用
回覆刪除“I'm going to make another prediction,” Allan Lichtman told The Washington Post Friday. “This one is not based on a system; it's just my gut. They don't want Trump as president, because they can't control him. He's unpredictable. They'd love to have Pence — an absolutely down-the-line, conservative, controllable Republican. And I'm quite certain Trump will give someone grounds for impeachment, either by doing something that endangers national security or because it helps his pocketbook.”
回覆刪除原因等同為何游錫堃只輸朱立倫一點點。川普的普選票輸這麼少就是對精英的警告了。
回覆刪除精英必須理解人民想要什麼及需要什麼，他們以為支持川普的民粹不懂美國及世界利益、但他們其實更糟糕。
美國輸出和平其實是虧本生意，再不漲價美國就要垮了。