Matarbari：孟加拉灣的地殼變動

【Comment】

孟加拉灣比墨西哥灣大。中印日在此有戰略利益，當然要大舉投資。坎培拉大學David Brewster教授稱孟加拉灣與南海為孿生兄弟。日本當然要幫忙投資建港口。

既生瑜何生亮。

中國的珍珠鏈計劃中，在孟加拉有一港口 Chittagon，就在Matarbari北方，兩者相距約25公里。2009年日本幫忙完成Sonadia港的評估，但孟加拉首相Hansina卻找中國幫忙。中國在2012年公開支持Sonadia計劃。但從未簽約，原因是他國反對。但中國的Sonadia港計劃仍在進行中。

Matarbari是日本獨立行政法人國際協力機構（Japan International Cooperation Agency, JICA）的案件，實際由住友執行。JICA已經研究至少4年了。發電廠是有償資金協助。

Matarbari港預計在2016年初開工。Matarbari完成將是孟加拉第一個18m的深水海港。JICA要建立的是工業走廊，包括港口、輸電網、鐵公路、燃煤電廠。

日本的企圖心更大，要以此通向亞洲其他部分。難怪安倍去年訪問孟加拉，是14年來首次。也提供48億美元貸款。

孟加拉是全球第二大的成衣輸出國，佔該國GNP的15％。但基礎建設很差。

元月中國石油才從緬甸外海挖出石油，中國還要加強Chittagon建設。去年中國潛艦才在巴基斯坦靠港，但現在卻積極向印度洋國家示好，而今年斯里蘭卡選出傾印度的新總統。情勢瞬息萬變。

對日中而言，印度洋港口很有價值。此事，JICA以孟加拉灣的地殼變動來形容。

《一帶一路挫敗》日踢走中國 承造孟加拉深水港○自由(2015.06.25)

孟國官員：「有些國家」反對中國參與

〔編譯顧佳欣／綜合報導〕彭博（Bloomberg）新聞廿四日報導，日本在南亞積極佈局，領先中國搶下孟加拉馬塔巴里（Matarbari）價值達四千五百億日圓（約台幣一千一百億元）的深水港興建案，令近年來亟欲搶佔印度洋先機、打造「海上絲路」的中國深受打擊。

馬塔巴里港位於孟加拉東南部，深達十八公尺，是孟國現有港口的兩到三倍，孟國政府與日本國際協辦機構（JICA）皆證實，工程預計明年一月動工，對於距離僅二十五公里之遙、但中孟雙方仍在談判中的索納地亞島（Sonadia Island）港口計畫，無疑是一項壞消息。

孟加拉無深水港 船隻得等漲潮進出

以服飾出口為命脈之一的孟加拉，自一九七一年獨立以來就未曾建造過新港口，一直渴望擁有一個深水港，目前兩個主要港口，即吉大港（Chittagong）與蒙拉（Mongla）都不夠深，致使船隻必須等漲潮才能進出，更大的船還要先把貨物轉運到小船上，讓進駐吉大港之成本較鄰國高出好幾倍。

日本在二○○九年受孟加拉之託，完成索納地亞島港口評估計畫，但親中的總理哈席娜（Sheikh Hasina）則希望中國幫忙，然而去年哈席娜到訪北京，港口計畫卻沒有談攏。今年一月，孟國計畫部長卡馬爾親自透露原因，「有些國家，包括印度和美國，反對中方參與」。

如今馬塔巴里已拍板定案，美國的能源顧問公司「IHS」海事分析家亞特金森認為，該地只夠容納一個港口，也認為日本中選背後可能有政治原因，「如果你想建個港口，還希望西方也會支持，由中國資助的港口還會是好方案嗎？」

包括一座一二○○兆瓦火力發電廠的馬塔巴里港，總造價估計為四千五百億日圓，JICA表示，已支付四百一十五億日圓（約台幣一○三億元）用於由住友集團（Sumitomo Corp.）領導的準備工作，相關作業將會在十一月完成。

中國國家主席習近平二○一三年造訪東協國家時宣示要創建海上絲路，由東亞起始，串聯南亞、西亞、北非至歐洲市場鏈的面海戰略合作經濟帶，與陸上「絲綢之路經濟帶」並稱「一帶一路」，因此印度洋的地位至關重要，掌握運輸通道的孟加拉灣，更是中、日、印度必爭之地。

Japan Beating China in Race for Indian Ocean Deep-Sea Port○Bloomberg(2015.06.23)

Japan is beating out China in a race to build Bangladesh’s first deep-sea port as the region’s powers jostle for a foothold in the Indian Ocean.

Construction of the 18-meter-deep port at Matarbari on Bangladesh’s southeast coast is set to start by January, Japan International Cooperation Agency said in an e-mailed response to questions from Bloomberg News. That’s bad news for a stalled China plan to build a port about 25 kilometers (15 miles) away.

“I’d imagine there’s only room for one port,” said Krispen Atkinson, a maritime analyst at IHS Inc., citing the cost to build railway lines and approach channels.  “There are probably political reasons behind it as well.  If you’re looking to build a port and want Western support as well, would a port financed by China be the favored option?”

The deal would mark a setback for China in South Asia, where it’s seeking to establish economic and military ties in a region that carries about 80 percent of its oil imports.  The Bay of Bengal, a body of water bigger than Mexico, lies at the heart of an area where China, Japan and India are investing billions of dollars to secure economic gains for decades to come.

“There’s a remarkable scramble going on,” said David Brewster, a visiting fellow at the Australian National University in Canberra, who called the bay a “twin” to the South China Sea.  “The Japanese clearly see themselves in competition with China, and control over ports is seen as important.  I expect the Japanese are very happy about this.”

Shallow Ports

Bangladesh’s government confirmed that work on the Matarbari port is scheduled to start early in 2016, while saying talks on the China-backed port at Sonadia island are still underway.

Bangladesh hasn’t built a new seaport since independence in 1971.  It’s wanted a deepwater one for more than a decade as the country turned into the world’s second-biggest exporter of garments, which account for 15 percent of gross national product.

Waters surrounding Bangladesh’s two main ports -- Chittagong and Mongla -- are so shallow that vessels have to wait for an incoming tide to berth and an outgoing one to leave.  Bigger ships currently need to transfer their loads to smaller vessels.  The longer turnaround can cost an extra $15,000 per day, making Chittagong several times pricier than ports in neighboring countries.

The Matarbari port, at 18 meters (59 feet), would be deep enough to host the largest container vessels, according to IHS’s Atkinson.

China Stutters

To pay for a bigger port, Bangladesh needs help.  That’s where the region’s major powers come in.

While a Japanese company in 2009 completed studies for the Bangladesh government for a port at Sonadia, Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina initially sought help to build it from China, which she once called the “most dependable and consistent friend of Bangladesh.”  Since at least 2012, China has publicly backed the Sonadia project.

Newspapers speculated that the deal would be clinched when Hasina visited Beijing last year.  Yet it never happened.

“Although the Sonadia deepwater port project failed to get signed, both sides expressed willingness to have further negotiations,” Chinese state media reported at the time.

Months later, a member of her cabinet revealed a key reason for the delay.

Asia Gateway

“Some countries, including India and the United States, are against the Chinese involvement,” Planning Minister A.H.M. Mustafa Kamal told reporters in January, according to the Dhaka Tribune.  The government is rethinking Sonadia since Matarbari is only 25 kilometers away, he said.

M.A. Mannan, state minister for finance and planning, said there’s room for both ports.  Matarbari would be used mostly for handling coal imports to supply power plants, while Sonadia would be a “full-fledged deep-sea port,” he said.

But the Japanese have more ambitious plans.  Matarbari port can be “an important trade gateway to the rest of Asia and beyond,” JICA President Akihiko Tanaka said in a speech at the University of Dhaka last year.

Even state-run Coal Power Generation Company Bangladesh Ltd., which is executing the project with JICA, says the port will contribute to “large-scale commercial development.”

Shinzo Abe in September became the first Japanese prime minister in 14 years to visit Bangladesh.  Earlier he offered Hasina 600 billion yen ($4.8 billion) in loans for the project.

Marine Turtles

JICA envisions building electricity transmission lines, highways and rail links to build an industrial corridor on par with Thailand’s Eastern Seaboard, which now accounts for more than half of the country’s trade.

The total cost of Matarbari, which includes a 1,200 megawatt coal power plant, would be about 450 billion yen. JICA said it has begun disbursing a 41.5 billion yen loan for preparatory work, and a group led by Sumitomo Corp. will complete the project survey by November.  Sumitomo didn’t respond to an e-mail seeking comment.

Matarbari is a small island of shrimp farms and salt pans. Sonadia -- home to mangroves, migratory birds and marine turtles -- has been designated an environmentally critical area, another obstacle to building a deep-sea port.

Sites along the Bay of Bengal are particularly strategic to China.  In January, China National Petroleum Corp. began pumping oil from a new deep-water port in Myanmar.  China Harbour Engineering Co. is helping upgrade Chittagong port.

 ‘Tectonic Change’

While China has close ties to Pakistan and has sought to improve relations with Indian Ocean countries, it suffered a setback when Sri Lanka elected a new president who shifted toward India.  Less than a year ago, a Chinese submarine had docked a port in Colombo developed in part with China’s help.

If Sonadia fails to materialize, news reports suggest China may help develop another port at Payra.  When Hasina officially kicked off construction in 2013, the plan was for the port to handle vessels as deep as 10 meters.

For China and Japan, Indian Ocean ports are valuable.  Besides carrying most of the world’s oil trade, the seas provide access to some of the world’s most populous and fastest growing markets.  Bangladesh has about 166 million people, the fifth most in Asia.

“The Bay of Bengal is centrally located within this tectonic change,” JICA’s Tanaka said in last year’s speech. “Bangladesh, in other words, is the linchpin.”