奈及利亞的Boko Haram原來效忠蓋達組織，現在改效忠ISIL。Boko在元月中已經與ISIL聯繫。當ISIL接受後，就會派人到Boko指導後者的戰鬥，以及神學與治理活動。
原旗幟上的蓋達旗，已經改為ISIL旗了。
IS大概找到對抗強權的有效方法——結盟。但，兩者距離仍太遠，中間需要效忠的聯絡組織來串連。那就是北非與阿拉伯半島。
實際上，去年11月，ISIL已經接受埃及、利比亞、阿爾及利雅、葉門與沙烏地等國的組織的效忠。今年元月，ISIL吹牛阿富汗與巴基斯坦為其一省。
但這是從ISIL與Boko做為兩端點的觀點來看的，ISIL正在做的是輻射狀擴張。結盟是深植於阿拉伯部族社會的傳統文化。
雖然專家都說Boko本身也山頭林立，還不作數，何況相對於原效忠「蓋達組織」得享有自治地位而言，此事尚待進一步查證；但從各國的組織形成「系列效忠」的風潮看，專家或在為自身的束手無策而自我安慰。
ISIL會到東南亞來嗎？印尼、馬來西亞或菲律賓？
以民族國家為藍本想像，ISIL的擴張若無法使其在地理上相連，就無法發揮巨大實力。反過來說，即便眾多ISIL無法連成一氣，也足夠騷擾世界秩序了。
不承認世界秩序的中國，該高興嗎？
簡單問一句：中國在奈及利亞投下資本於石油產業。會受何影響呢？
此處指的是，中國一向因為不願被外國干涉內政而堅持「不干涉他國內政」。但，當中國商業利益與全球的連結加深，中國要放緩堅持，還是坐令投資泡湯？
「將患難與共」 博科聖地宣誓效忠IS○自由(2015.03.02) http://news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/breakingnews/1250653
〔本報訊〕同是燒殺擄掠的激進組織，今奈及利亞的「博科聖地」（BokoHaram）宣誓向伊斯蘭國（IS）效忠，發誓追隨IS的領導人巴格達迪（Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi）。
綜合外電報導，美國反恐情報組織「SITE」稱，今天博科聖地透過放上網路的一段錄音檔宣誓這項決定，一名自稱是博科聖地領導人的男性席考（Abubakar Shekau）以阿拉伯語說，「我們宣布，我們效忠穆斯林的哈里發，於患難和安樂時期都會聽命和服從。」哈里發為伊斯蘭世界政治宗教領袖的稱謂。
《紐約時報》（The New York Times）報導，這項宣誓承諾將使博科聖地服從IS的命令作戰，但仍無法確定兩大恐怖組織將會達成何種程度的協調。
IS的巴格達迪先前已接受來自中東、阿富汗、巴基斯坦和北非的其他聖戰士團體的效忠宣誓。
「博科聖地」2009年開始在奈及利亞製造動亂，在東北部地區進行自殺炸彈攻擊，之後更將攻擊擴大到鄰國查德、尼日和喀麥隆。
Nigeria's Boko Haram pledges allegiance to Islamic State○BBC(2015.03.07) http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-31784538
Nigerian militant group Boko Haram has pledged allegiance
to Islamic State (IS), according to an audio
statement.
The message, which has not been verified, was posted on Boko Haram's Twitter account
and is believed to be by the group's leader, Abubakar Shekau.
Boko Haram began a military campaign to impose Islamic rule in northern Nigeria in 2009. The conflict has since spread to neighbouring
states.
It would be the latest
in a series of groups to swear allegiance to IS.
In the past Boko Haram is thought to have had
links with al-Qaeda.
IS took control of large swathes of territory
in eastern Syria and across northern and western Iraq last year.
The group aims to establish a
"caliphate", a state ruled by a single political and religious leader
according to Islamic law, or Sharia. Its
leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, is known to his followers as Caliph Ibrahim.
In the audio message posted on Saturday, the
Boko Haram leader purportedly said: "We
announce our allegiance to the caliph... and will hear and obey in times
of difficulty and prosperity.
"We call on Muslims
everywhere to pledge allegiance to the caliph."
Analysis: Jim Muir, BBC News, Beirut
The announcement by the Boko Haram leader came
in a well-produced audio message posted on the internet, with rolling
translation from his Arabic to both French and English. Although it was not an elaborate video
production like those put out by IS itself, it had many of the IS hallmarks,
including an Islamic anthem at the beginning.
The step came as no surprise, given evidence
in Boko Haram's propaganda output of growing IS influence
on the Nigerian movement, whose ideology and harsh practices mirror those of IS itself.
What it will add up to in practical terms,
given Boko Haram's local roots and the geographical distance between them, is hard to
see. But from a propaganda
point of view, it's a boost for IS, whose
presence on the ground in Iraq and Syria is generally stalled and on the
defensive.
Boko Haram's insurgency has threatened
Nigeria's territorial integrity and triggered a humanitarian crisis.
It has carried out frequent
bombings that have left thousands dead in Nigeria's north-east and has
also attacked targets in the capital, Abuja.
On Saturday, at least five blasts including
several suicide bombings in the
north-eastern Nigerian city of Maiduguri left at least 50 people dead.
The targets included two busy markets and a
bus terminal in the city. Eyewitnesses
have said at least two of the suicide bombers were women.
Boko Haram has not yet commented on the
attack, but it has used suicide bombers in the past and Maiduguri is its former
stronghold.
The Nigerian military and troops from
neighbouring states have recently claimed a series of successes in their
efforts to push back Boko Haram. Nigeria postponed national elections by six weeks
until 28 March in order to have more time to try to improve security in the
north.
IS has forged links with other
militant groups across North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula.
In November Abu-Bakr al-Baghdadi accepted pledges of allegiance from jihadists in Egypt, Libya, Algeria, Yemen
and Saudi Arabia.
In January, militants in Afghanistan and
Pakistan announced that they were forming an IS
"province".
IS is distinguished by the brutality of its
tactics, which include mass killings and
abductions of members of religious and ethnic minorities, as well as the beheadings of soldiers and journalists.
Since last year, a US-led alliance has tried
to counter the group with air strikes in Iraq and Syria.
Boko
Haram Said to Pledge Allegiance to Islamic State○NYT(2015.03.07) http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/08/world/africa/boko-haram-is-said-to-pledge-allegiance-to-islamic-state.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0
With thousands of fighters and some parts of
northeastern Nigeria under its control, Boko Haram is believed to be the
largest jihadi group to pledge fidelity to
the Islamic State. But terrorism experts
say that the practical significance of the move announced Saturday is as yet unclear.
Some experts say that the pledge, or “bayat,”
made by the leader of Boko Haram is a spiritually
binding oath, which indicates that the Nigerian Islamist group has
agreed to accept the authority of the
Islamic State.
But as with similar pledges to the Islamic
State, also known as ISIS or
ISIL, by other extremist groups, there are few
details about how much direct control the Islamic State leaders have over their
distant proxies.
If confirmed, the agreement with Boko Haram
would mirror the steps taken by Islamic State affiliates in Libya, Algeria,
Egypt, Afghanistan and beyond. In each
case, a group’s leaders swore allegiance in a public message posted online. Weeks later,
the oath was formally accepted by the Islamic State, in a statement issued by
the group’s spokesman.
“It’s quite clear that since at least mid-January, the Islamic State has had some level
of connection with Boko Haram,” said Aaron Y. Zelin, a fellow at the Washington Institute who tracks propaganda by
Islamic extremists. “The key question is whether the
Islamic State dispatched individuals from Syria or Iraq, or else from
Libya, down to northern Nigeria to help out with operations
on the ground, or else with methodology, or
in terms of governance activities.”
Boko Haram is estimated to have up to 6,000 fighters and at least some level of control
over about 20,000 square kilometers, or
about 8,000 square miles, of northeastern Nigeria, according to Ryan Cummings,
chief Africa analyst for red24, a
crisis management group based in Britain, who has been following the group
since 2011. Mr. Cummings raised
questions about the kind of command-and-control
structure that could exist between the two groups.
“It seems at the moment that this is a
statement that is akin to saying, ‘We are on the
same page,’ ” he said. “But
the biggest issue with Boko Haram is that it’s not
a homogeneous group and it behaves as different factions. So it’s too early
to tell for sure if Boko Haram will fall directly under ISIS command,
and to what extent they will act as an ISIS proxy.”
Since its inception, Boko Haram’s targets,
goals and language have been almost exclusively Nigerian, and the focus of its
hate remains the Nigerian state and its agents.
Moreover, the group’s brutality is unlikely to
be altered by a new alliance. Paul
Lubeck, a Nigeria expert at Johns Hopkins University, said Saturday that Boko
Haram had been practicing the signature tactics of the Islamic State —
beheadings and enslavement — even before the
Islamic State.
Professor Lubeck said there was some
significance to Boko Haram’s pledge of allegiance, if true, because the group
had until now maintained its autonomy from larger groups like Al Qaeda. But he was unable to say what practical
consequences an affiliation with the Islamic State might have.
An American intelligence official also reacted
cautiously, saying that while Boko Haram would not
turn down money or material support from the Islamic State, it was unlikely
that it would take orders from it. “It’s probably more for propaganda purposes
than anything else,” said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity
to discuss intelligence matters.
For roughly 18 months, there have been growing
signs of at least links of solidarity between the organizations, as well as
suggestions that the Islamic State has been grooming Boko Haram for entry into
its network. Last
year, Boko Haram’s leader declared his support for the leader of the Islamic
State, and began using the Islamic State
battle hymn as the soundtrack for videos documenting his atrocities.
Analysts have also noted a growing professionalism in Boko Haram’s videos,
which had previously been shot with hand-held cameras and posted haphazardly on
YouTube. The
new videos were noticeably more polished and used images that mimicked the
visual vocabulary of the Islamic State.
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