2014 太陽花學運：馬愛中華，自甘區長

 【Comment】

文章作者 William Pesek 提及 Xi could just cut off the flow of business to Taiwan. 並舉近日的許多實例：

Just as oil gives Russia undue influence over Ukraine, China's trade brawn gives its vast leverage from Indonesia to Nigeria. 他還沒講菲律賓、越南等例子。

不是嗎，白狼在第一天晚上就跳出來表忠。現在，連盧秀燕也等不及，真令人瞠目結舌。

這次學運有個幸運點就是，世界以有許多國家深受其害。中國以經濟威脅他國政治，也標示為其行為模式。因此，台灣學生只要稍加說明，外國記者就融會貫通了。

外媒稱馬英九親中政策錯誤　提醒不是在當區長○Now News（2014.04.01）http://www.nownews.com/n/2014/04/01/1173240

太陽花學運引發國際社會關注，美國彭博社專欄作家皮賽克 (William Pesek) 撰文批評馬英九親中政策錯誤，治理台灣像統治特別行政區一樣。

《彭博觀點》 (Bloomberg View) 1日刊登專欄作家皮賽克的「中國正在失去台灣嗎?」 (Is China Losing Taiwan?) 一文，文中明白指出：「如果想要靠攏中國，千萬別太學中國那套。」

皮賽克文中指出，馬政府拒絕逐條審查、試圖透過黑箱作業強行通過兩岸貿易協議，惹惱了島上的數十萬學生。文中提醒馬英九是在治理一個民主國家，而不是一個共產黨管理的特別行政區。

文中認為，如果兩岸經濟有效合併，北京可以「以經逼政」，對台灣為所欲為。馬政府目前過度倚賴大陸的善意，皮賽克認為台灣應該暫時擱置與大陸簽署貿易協議，與更多已開發國家簽署自由貿易協定。

但是皮賽克也表示，從北韓到烏克蘭，已經充滿太多地緣政治危機，這個世界不需要台灣與大陸之間的新冷戰。他呼籲，馬英九應該從失算中出發，當有不同觀點出現時，他必須修改協定的內容，因為民主就是這樣運作。

Is China Losing Taiwan?○Bloomberg View By William Pesek（2014.03.31）http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-03-31/is-china-losing-taiwan

Taiwan's Ma Ying-jeou is learning a very valuable lesson the hard way: If you want to cozy up to China, it's best not to be too Chinese about it.

The point is being driven home by hundreds of thousands of student protesters, enraged by the Taiwanese president's attempt to enact a trade pact with China in the dark of night. T he deal to open up the island's service industries is controversial enough.  But when Ma reneged on a promise to allow a clause-by-clause review before implementing it, he infuriated the island's youth.  Ma seems to have forgotten he's running a democracy, not a Communist Party precinct.

This nascent battle between students and Ma's ruling Kuomintang Party is about more than bank branches and beauty parlors.  It's about where Taiwan intends to position itself in the tug of war between Xi Jinping's China and Barack Obama's U.S. for influence in Asia.

No doubt Xi and Obama never expected Taiwan to flare up as an issue between them this year.  In his almost six years as president, Ma has focused intently on improving ties with the mainland.  But the students who last month stormed Taiwan's cabinet compound for the first time in history demonstrated the limits and unappreciated consequences of that policy.  Although not exactly an Arab Spring, this “Sunflower Movement” suggests the calm across the Taiwan Strait that Beijing and Washington took for granted may officially be over.

Ma should shelve the China deal for now.  His argument that backing out would undermine Taiwan's economy and international credibility pales in comparison to the need to preserve the island's hard-won democracy.  Yes, China is Taiwan's largest trading partner and Ma's economy has been hit hard by the demise of the personal computer, on which the island largely bet its future.  Clearly, alienating Beijing carries costs.

But so does a policy that depends on China's goodwill.  Taiwan's sophisticated economy has more in common with those of the U.S. and Japan than China, and it should ink more free-trade pacts with developed nations, like the one recently signed with New Zealand.  Its human capital, infrastructure and financial resources give Taiwan the leverage to move up the value-added ladder in the search for the next game-changing technology.  That's the only way Taiwan is going to maintain or improve its per capita income of about $39,000 -- not by selling TVs and PCs to Chinese.

Ma's bigger misstep was assuming his people would go along quietly with his Politburo-esque maneuver.  Young Taiwanese appear to be mulling a very different future, one that shares the values espoused by the opposition Democratic Progressive Party.  Are they proud of their Chinese heritage?  Sure.  But that doesn't mean they're prepared to give up freedoms and rights that still remain a dream on the mainland.

The Communist Party's subjugation of its own citizens and overreach in Hong Kong is feeding the movement.  Young Taiwanese have watched as China has backtracked on pledges to allow Hong Kongers to elect their own leaders.  Beijing's attempts to impose vaguely written anti-sedition laws and patriotic education, and to clamp down on the city's freewheeling press, are equally unnerving.  China should be learning from Hong Kong's civil liberties and first-world financial system, not the other way around.

Taiwanese have to wonder what Beijing might try if Ma got his way and effectively merged the two economies.  Trade pacts with China can involve political control as much as economics: Just as oil gives Russia undue influence over Ukraine, China's trade brawn gives its vast leverage from Indonesia to Nigeria.  If it's displeased by events in Taipei, Xi could just cut off the flow of business to Taiwan.

Already racked by geopolitical crises from Ukraine to North Korea, the world doesn't need a new cold war between China and Taiwan.  But Ma's miscalculation provides a chance for him to start fresh.  He should try harder to sell his vision for expanding the 2010 Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement that led to this controversial services deal.  Where differences emerge, he should tweak the pact accordingly.  In case Ma forgot, that's how democracy works.