大驚喜：「有人」知道你會買

【Comment】

大數據 (big data) 有個最新的例子：Amazon 可以從使用者過去的使用習慣中，得知會員可能想買哪種物品，從而在會員訂貨前先送到家，給個大驚喜！

目前尚不知 Amazon 是直接送到客戶家中作強迫推銷，或是先送到地區發貨中心，從而能在一天或半天內到貨。重點是，這商業模式 Amazon 已經申請專利。專利耶！

這當然不是「五府千歲」（包括本人在內）想得出來的。

這是網路大監控的商業應用。遠東集團搞到「交通雲」之後，當然也可能會抄襲。

奇怪，這等重要事，「仁政府」為何變笨不知分權（讓三家去競爭，一如三家比價），而僅僅委託一家？

再這樣下去，不久中華民國，可能要稱為中華仁國，或遠東君主國了！這也是實質獨立？

亞馬遜猜顧客心 未下單先送貨○自由（2014.01.20）http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2014/new/jan/20/today-int10.htm

〔國際新聞中心／綜合報導〕美國零售巨擘亞馬遜（Amazon）太懂你的心了，甚至在你還沒按下「購買」鍵之前，他們就能洞燭機先，先一步送出你想要的貨物。美國媒體報導，亞馬遜去年十二月取得一種「先送貨後收訂」的專利，希望大幅縮短送貨時間，鼓勵消費者多用網路，少光顧實體商店。

亞馬遜的專利名為「預期性送貨」（anticipatory shipping），透過參考客戶的歷史訂單、搜尋的產品、追蹤清單、購物車未結帳商品、退貨商品，決定預先送貨的清單，甚至連游標停留商品的時間都能拿來參考。

亞馬遜目前的作法是，收到訂單後從倉庫調出貨品，貼好標明地址的送貨標籤後，再送上卡車，出貨給快遞公司送貨。但若採用「預期性送貨」，亞馬遜可將客戶可能購買的商品送往貨運中樞或卡車上，以逸待勞地「等待」顧客青睞，訂單一到即可立即出貨。

此前亞馬遜宣布無人機送貨計畫，以顧客購買較小型商品，下單三十分鐘後即可收到貨為目標；而「預期性送貨」預料也能大幅縮短送貨時間，但此次亞馬遜並未評估可縮短多少時間。

亞馬遜表示，在銷售暢銷書或其他消費者希望產品上市當天即可收到貨的案例中，預先送貨的好處可能特別大；為了減少退貨成本，亞馬遜表示，可能考慮給予客戶折扣，或將預先送出卻沒人要的商品當成禮物致贈顧客，不失為建立商譽的好方法。

Amazon Wants to Ship Your Package Before You Buy It○WSJ（2014.01.17）

http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2014/01/17/amazon-wants-to-ship-your-package-before-you-buy-it/

Amazon.com knows you so well it wants to ship your next package before you order it.

The Seattle retailer in December gained a patent for what it calls “anticipatory shipping,” a method to start delivering packages even before customers click “buy.”

The technique could cut delivery time and discourage consumers from visiting physical stores.  In the patent document, Amazon says delays between ordering and receiving purchases “may dissuade customers from buying items from online merchants.”

So Amazon says it may box and ship products it expects customers in a specific area will want – based on previous orders and other factors — but haven’t yet ordered.  According to the patent, the packages could wait at the shippers’ hubs or on trucks until an order arrives.

In deciding what to ship, Amazon said it may consider previous orders, product searches, wish lists, shopping-cart contents, returns and even how long an Internet user’s cursor hovers over an item.

Today, Amazon receives an order, then labels packages with addresses at its warehouses and loads them onto waiting UPS, USPS or other trucks, which may take them directly to customers’ homes or load them onto other trucks for final delivery.

It has been working to cut delivery times, expanding its warehouse network to begin overnight and same-day deliveries.  Last year, Amazon said it is working on unmanned flying vehicles that could take small packages to homes directly from its warehouses.

In the patent, Amazon does not estimate how much the technique will reduce delivery times.

The patent exemplifies a growing trend among technology and consumer firms to anticipate consumers’ needs, even before consumers do.  Today, there are refrigerators that can tell when it’s time to buy more milk, smart televisions that predict which shows to record and Google’s Now software, which aims to predict users’ daily scheduling needs.

It’s not clear if Amazon has deployed or will deploy the technique.  A spokeswoman declined to comment.

But the patent demonstrates one way Amazon hopes to leverage its vast trove of customer data to edge out rivals.

“It appears Amazon is taking advantage of their copious data,” said Sucharita Mulpuru, a Forrester Research analyst.  “Based on all the things they know about their customers they could predict demand based on a variety of factors.”

According to the patent, Amazon may fill out partial street addresses or zip codes to get items closer to where customers need them, and later complete the label in transit, the company said.  For large apartment buildings, “a package without addressee information may be speculatively shipped to a physical address … having a number of tenants,” Amazon said in the patent.

Amazon said the predictive shipping method might work particularly well for a popular book or other items that customers want on the day they are released.  As well, Amazon might suggest items already in transit to customers using its website to ensure they are delivered, according to the patent.

Of course, Amazon’s algorithms might sometimes err, prompting costly returns.  To minimize those costs, Amazon said it might consider giving customers discounts, or convert the unwanted delivery into a gift. “Delivering the package to the given customer as a promotional gift may be used to build goodwill,” the patent said.