【Comment】
聯合國跨政府氣候變遷委員會(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)確認:地球溫暖化主要為人為因素所導致。
接下來當然是財產與國力的搬移以及生活型態的重新適應,人類又會爭鬧不休了
Human influence on climate clear○IPCC(2013.09.27)http://www.ipcc.ch/news_and_events/docs/ar5/press_release_ar5_wgi_en.pdf
STOCKHOLM, 27
September - Human influence on the climate
system is clear. This is evident in
most regions of the globe, a new assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) concludes.
It is extremely likely
that human influence has been the dominant cause
of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. The evidence for this has grown, thanks to
more and better observations, an improved understanding of the climate system
response and improved climate models.
Warming in the climate system is
unequivocal and since 1950 many
changes have been observed throughout the climate system that are unprecedented
over decades to millennia. Each of the
last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any
preceding decade since 1850, reports the Summary for Policymakers of the IPCC
Working Group I assessment report, Climate Change 2013: the
Physical Science Basis, approved on Friday by member governments of
the IPCC in Stockholm, Sweden.
“Observations of
changes in the climate system are based on multiple lines of independent evidence. Our assessment of the science finds that the atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amount of snow
and ice has diminished, the global mean sea level has risen and the concentrations
of greenhouse gases have increased,” said Qin Dahe, Co-Chair of IPCC
Working Group I.
Thomas Stocker, the
other Co-Chair of Working Group I said: "Continued emissions of greenhouse
gases will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate
system. Limiting
climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of
greenhouse gas emissions."
“Global surface
temperature change for the end of the 21st century
is projected to be likely to exceed 1.5°C relative to 1850 to 1900 in all but
the lowest scenario considered, and likely to exceed 2°C for the two high
scenarios,” said Co-Chair Thomas Stocker. “Heat waves are
very likely to occur more frequently and last longer. As the Earth warms, we expect to see
currently wet regions receiving more rainfall, and dry regions receiving less,
although there will be exceptions,” he added. Projections of climate change are based on a new set of four scenarios of future greenhouse
gas
concentrations and
aerosols, spanning a wide range of possible futures. The Working Group I report assessed global
and regional-scale climate change for the early, mid-, and later 21st century.
“As the ocean warms,
and glaciers and ice sheets reduce, global mean sea level will continue to rise,
but at a faster rate than we have experienced over the past 40 years,” said
Co-Chair Qin Dahe.
The report finds with
high confidence that ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in
the climate system, accounting for more than 90% of the energy accumulated
between 1971 and 2010.
Co-Chair Thomas Stocker concluded: “As a result
of our past, present and expected future emissions of CO2, we are committed to
climate change, and effects will persist for many centuries even if emissions
of CO2 stop.”
Rajendra Pachauri, Chair of the IPCC, said:
“This Working Group I Summary for Policymakers provides important insights into
the scientific basis of climate change. It
provides a firm foundation for considerations of the impacts of climate change
on human and natural systems and ways to meet the challenge of climate change.”
These are among the aspects assessed in
the contributions of Working Group II and Working Group III to be released in
March and April 2014. The IPCC Fifth Assessment
Report cycle concludes with the publication of its Synthesis Report in October
2014.
“I would like to thank the Co-Chairs of Working
Group I and the hundreds of scientists and experts who served as authors and
review editors for producing a comprehensive and scientifically robust summary. I also express my thanks to the more than one
thousand expert reviewers worldwide for contributing their expertise in
preparation of this assessment,” said IPCC Chair Pachauri.
The Summary for Policymakers of the Working
Group I contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (WGI AR5) is available
at www.climatechange2013.org or www.ipcc.ch.
Key Findings
See separate Fact Sheet of Headline Statements
from the WGI AR5 Summary for Policymakers, available at www.climatechange2013.org.
Background
Working Group I is co-chaired by Qin Dahe of the
China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China, and Thomas Stocker of the
University of Bern, Switzerland. The
Technical Support Unit of Working Group I is hosted by the University of Bern
and funded by the Government of Switzerland.
At the 28th Session of the IPCC held in April
2008, the members of the IPCC decided to prepare a Fifth Assessment Report
(AR5). A Scoping Meeting was convened in
July 2009 to develop the scope and outline of the AR5. The resulting outlines for the three Working
Group contributions to the AR5 were approved at the 31st Session of the IPCC in
October 2009.
The Summary for Policymakers of the IPCC WGI AR5
was approved at the Twelfth Session of IPCC Working Group I meeting in
Stockholm, Sweden, 23 to 26 September 2013 and was released on 27 September.
The Final Draft of the Working Group I report
(version distributed to governments on 7 June 2013), including the Technical
Summary, 14 chapters and an Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections,
will be released online in unedited form on Monday 30 September. Following copyediting, layout, final checks
for errors, and adjustments for changes in the Summary for Policymakers, the
full report of Working Group I will be published online in January 2014 and in book
form by Cambridge University Press a few months later.
The Working Group I assessment comprises some
2,500 pages of text and draws on millions of observations and over 2 million
gigabytes of numerical data from climate model simulations. Over 9,200 scientific publications are cited,
more than three quarters of which have been published since the last IPCC
assessment in 2007.
In this IPCC assessment report, specific terms
are used to indicate the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result. For those terms used above: virtually certain
means 99–100% probability, extremely likely: 95–100%, very likely: 90–100%,
likely: 66–100%.
For more information see the IPCC uncertainty
guidance note: https://www.ipcc-wg1.unibe.ch/guidancepaper/ar5_uncertaintyguidance-note.pdf
For more information, contact:
IPCC Press Office, Email: ipcc-media@wmo.int
Jonathan Lynn, + 41 22 730 8066 or Werani
Zabula, + 41 22 730 8120
IPCC Working Group I Media Contact, Email:
media@ipcc.unibe.ch
Pauline Midgley, +41 31 631 5620
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