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2018-07-04

真正的高峰會 Matthew Continetti @ the Washington Free Beacon 20180615 雲程譯

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However, N. Korea was found to complete its new nuclear test facilities after the Singapore Summit.
It is the philosophy and tradition that Leninists know nothing but physical power.



The Real Summit Column: It took place in Beijing….. Matthew Continetti @ The Washington Free Beacon20180615  雲程譯
The Singapore summit between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un had drama, imagery, pomp and circumstance, even a Hollywood-style promotional video. There were promises of denuclearization and hopes for a new relationship between the United States and North Korea.  What was missing, however, were the specific details and concrete actions necessary to achieve such lofty goals.  That work began at a less remarked on, but perhaps more important, meeting in Beijing two days later. Between Mike Pompeo and Xi Jinping.
川普和金正恩之間的新加坡峰會有戲劇,象徵意義,盛況,甚至是好萊塢式的宣傳效果。有人承諾實現非核化,並希望美國和朝鮮之間建立新關係。然而,缺少的是實現這些崇高目標所需的具體細節和具體行動。兩天後在北京舉行龐培歐和習近平之間會議,安排這項具體工作。它較少被評論,但也許更重要。

Singapore was nonetheless a revolution in U.S. relations with Kim's tyranny.  Since the end of the Cold War, our North Korea policy has followed a template: America leveraged its power to isolate the Hermit Kingdom and force it into negotiations where it made specific pledges to denuclearize in exchange for cash. It lied every time.  The cash arrived; the nukes multiplied.
儘管如此,新加坡仍是美國與金氏王朝關係的一大創舉。自冷戰結束以來,我們的朝鮮政策遵循了一個模式:美國利用其權力,孤立朝鮮隱士王國,迫使其進行談判,並作出具體承諾,以非核化換取現金。朝鮮每次都撒謊—得到現金,核武卻加倍。

Trump altered the formula.  Vowing "fire and fury" and implementing drastic sanctions, he reestablished a military deterrent that had eroded during the Obama years. Instead of following his predecessors along the circuitous route of multilateral negotiations, however, he went for bilateral, personal diplomacy to coax Kim out of isolation.  Then, rather than having the North Koreans commit to precise actions, he settled for vague aspirations that, by their nature, are harder to break.  And he did so without lifting a single sanction.
川普改變了這一切。矢言「火與憤怒」並實施嚴厲制裁。他重新建立了歐巴馬時期被侵蝕的軍事威懾力量。然而,他並不追隨他的前任,沿著迂迴的多邊談判路線,而是採取雙邊個人外交手段來哄騙金。然後,他沒有讓朝鮮承諾採取精確行動,而是採取了模糊的願望,這些願望本質上更難以打破。而且他也沒有解除任何制裁就這樣做了。

Yes, he agreed to suspend joint military exercises with democratic South Korea as a confidence-building measure.  I'm leery of the move, especially since the north has yet to undertake a confidence-building measure of its own. But does anyone doubt that the mercurial Trump won't restart the maneuvers at the first sign of North Korean intransigence?  This is the same president, after all, who called his new friend "little rocket man" at the U.N. last year and who backed out of the Singapore confab just weeks before it ended up taking place.
是的,川普同意暫停與民主韓國的聯合軍事演習,作為建立信任措施。我對這一行動持謹慎態度,特別是因為朝鮮還沒有採取自己的信任措施。但有人懷疑:川普不會在朝鮮顯現出頑固不化的第一個跡象時,重新開始演習嗎?畢竟,這是同一位總統,他去年在聯合國打電話給他的新朋友「小火箭人」,並在最後幾週前揚言退出新加坡會議。

Trump has gone from threat-making Dirty Harry to an upselling Billy Mays.  A few months ago he was drawing up plans to bomb North Korea back to the Stone Age.  Now he's developing condos along the Wonsan beach.  Carried aloft on gusts of optimistic rhetoric, he's declared the threat over on Twitter and tells us all to "sleep well tonight!"  Trump is unpredictable, impulsive, over the top.  He can't be controlled.
川普已經從威脅「以暴制暴」者,變成了一個升級服務的銷售員。幾個月前,他正在制訂計劃,要將朝鮮轟炸回石器時代。現在他正在沿著元山海灘開發公寓。在一陣樂觀的中,他在Twitter上宣布威脅,並告訴我們所有人:「願大家有個好眠!」川普是不可預測的,衝動的,過頭。他無法被控制。

The men and women who implement policy can't afford such flights of imagination.  They have to deal with the objective facts of the situation.  Retired admiral Harry Harris, the former Pacific commander nominated for U.S. ambassador to South Korea, told Congress, "I think we must continue to worry about the nuclear threat."  And at a press conference in Beijing with his Chinese counterpart, Mike Pompeo said, "We have made very clear that the sanctions and the economic relief that North Korea will receive will only happen after the full denuclearization, the complete denuclearization, of North Korea."
執行政策的人,無法承受這種想像力。他們必須處理有關情況的客觀事實。美國駐韓國大使提名人前太平洋指揮官哈里哈里斯退役海軍上將告訴國會:「我認為我們必須繼續擔心核威脅。」在北京與中國同行舉行的記者會上,龐培歐說:「我們已經非常清楚地表明,即朝鮮將只會在他們完全非核化之後,才能獲得經濟救濟。」

Which is why Pompeo's meetings in Beijing are decisive.  Not only would North Korea's nuclear program cease to exist without Chinese support. North Korea would disappear too.  Some 90 percent of North Korea's foreign trade is with China.  And it was most likely China's reluctant imposition of tough U.N. sanctions last spring that grabbed Kim's attention.  Now, with Singapore behind us, China is ready to ease the pressure.  That cannot happen if denuclearization is to succeed.
這就是為什麼龐培歐在北京的會議具有決定性的原因。如果沒有中國的支持,朝鮮的核計劃不僅不會存在。朝鮮也會消失。朝鮮90%的對外貿易都與中國有關。去年春天,中國可能很不情願採取嚴厲的聯合國制裁措施,引起了金正恩的注意。現在,隨著新加坡會議完成,中國已準備好降低制裁。如果非核化要成功,那就不可以發生這種情況。

Pompeo understands that in the midst of good feeling there is a tendency to look away from bad behavior, to excuse or rationalize autocratic probing for weakness and irresolution.  Democracies often sacrifice both their principles and their interests in order to perpetuate abstract, meaningless, consequence-free diplomatic processes.  If the Trump administration is to produce a different outcome than the Clinton, Bush, or Obama administrations, it must relax its posture only when North Korea provides tangible reasons to do so.
龐培歐明白,在良好的感覺中,有一種傾向於遠離不良行為,探索專制弱點藉口或合理化。民主國家往往犧牲自己的原則和利益,以便使抽象的,毫無意義的,無後果的外交進程永久化。如果川普政府要與柯林頓,布希或歐巴馬政府有所不同,只有在朝鮮提供切實理由的情況下,才能放鬆其態度。

So you go to Beijing. Why?  Because North Korea is but a part of a much larger puzzle: China's rise to great power status.
所以龐培歐去北京幹嘛?因為朝鮮只是一個更大難題的一部分:中國為崛起大國

Some might argue for going easy on Kim in order to free up resources to deal with China's military, cultural, political, and economic challenge to American power.  This gets it backward.  Want to see results in North Korea?  Resist Chinese hegemony.  By opening up the space for strategic decision-making and pressuring China at several points at once, you make it more likely Xi Jinping will exert influence over his vassal.  Just so we back off.
有些人可能會主張,讓金正恩放鬆一下,以便美國可以騰出資源來應對中國對美國力量的軍事,文化,政治和經濟挑戰。大錯特錯。想在朝鮮看到結果嗎?那就直接抵制中國的霸權。以開放戰略決策空間,同時卻向中國施加多方壓力,那你更有可能讓習近平得以對他的附庸國施加影響。這樣,我們就輸了。

Indeed, China is worried that North Korea may cut its own deal with the United States and, like Vietnam and Laos, become a one-party state that nevertheless balances against the Middle Kingdom.
事實上,中國擔心朝鮮會像越南和寮國一樣,以美國換中國,成為一黨制國家,又與中原保持平衡。

Let's increase Xi's blood pressure a little.  There are plenty of options.  For starters, kill the defense sequester.  In addition to conducting freedom of navigation operations, penalize China for militarizing islands in the South China Sea. Levy tariffs. Sell the F-35 to Taiwan.  Warn the region that, if negotiations with Kim fail, America may be forced to reintroduce the tactical nuclear missiles that were removed from the Korean peninsula in 1991.
我們有很多選擇,可增加對習的壓力。首先,擴張國防。除了進行航行自由行動外,還要懲罰中國在南中國海的軍事化進程、徵收關稅、將F-35賣給台灣、警告該地區,如果與金正日的談判失敗,美國可能會被迫重新引入那些1991年從朝鮮半島撤出的戰術核導彈。

Will China protest, and U.S. doves cry?  Of course they will.  But remember they did exactly the same thing last year—until maximum pressure forced China to act.  And North Korea sang a different tune.
中國會抗議,然後美國鴿派就只會哭嗎?他們當然會。但要記住,他們去年做的完全相同,不斷下壓直到迫使中國採取行動。然後,朝鮮就換了一張臉。


3 則留言:

  1. 有多處將金正恩寫成了金正日。

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  2. 讓半島處於分治狀態,遠比一個合作以至強大的半島來得好。朝鮮問題主要是韓國要去處理的事 - 如同台灣。有了核彈、導彈,然後打美國?金正恩改了,然後美國去幫他發展?中國不樂見。更不用說日本。

    美國有意志,拖得垮中國嗎?讓他進入失落狀態即可。日本,金融系統失能、不動產下落,不良債權大量產生,中國的條件是具足的。

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