China’s Military Threat to Taiwan:
A Geopolitical Analysis
Guermantes Lailari, retired US
Air Force Foreign Area officer, warns with his combat specialty in his article that
by 2023, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) had developed “systems destruction
warfare” capabilities, enabling it to launch precision strikes on Taiwan’s critical
infrastructure and wage psychological warfare at any moment. The CCP is now
awaiting the alignment of complementary capabilities and an opportune moment to
act.
In 2020,
China and Iran signed a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.” Drawing from Iran’s
recent attack on Israel, the CCP’s potential invasion of Taiwan would likely
commence with a multi-pronged, multi-wave saturation attack involving rockets,
missiles, and drones launched simultaneously from multiple locations. Such an
onslaught, characterized by its intensity and coordination, would overwhelm
even the most advanced defense systems, including those of the United States.
Inevitably, some missiles would penetrate defenses, causing significant
physical damage and societal panic. The CCP’s vast population allows it to
adopt a callous approach to human losses, prioritizing aggressive, high-cost
tactics aimed at delivering an “overwhelming strike.” For Taiwanese civilians,
survival would hinge on immediate sheltering or evacuation to weather the
initial waves of attack.
For the
CCP, a successful invasion of Taiwan would require
a Blitzkrieg, or surprise attack, exploiting a moment of Taiwanese complacency.
To achieve this, Beijing would likely adopt a slow, discreet military buildup,
masking its preparations to avoid detection. The command center for
rocket and missile operations is strategically located in Anhui Province, far
from the frontline, while launch sites are
distributed in a layered configuration: Fujian serves as the core, with
Guangdong, Jiangxi, and Zhejiang forming a secondary ring, and more distant
bases in Guangxi, Shandong, and Jilin constituting a third tier.
Analysts
suggest that the CCP, Russia, Iran, and North Korea may have envisioned a
coordinated global strategy: Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine would distract the U.S. and Europe, potentially drawing Western
forces to Eastern Europe; in this vacuum, Xi
Jinping could launch an invasion of Taiwan and Okinawa, while North Korea crosses the 38th parallel to isolate
Japan. Simultaneously, Iran and its proxies—such as
Hezbollah in Lebanon, Yemen’s Houthi rebels, and Hamas—would attack Israel.
This synchronized operation was designed to
stretch Western forces thin, creating tactical missteps that would
tilt the balance in favor of the authoritarian bloc. However, the West’s
resolute support for Ukraine and Israel’s aggressive counterstrikes against
Hamas and Iran have disrupted this “arc of
instability,” preventing Russia and China
from leveraging Iran to connect their strategic flanks. As a result,
Beijing has hesitated to initiate conflict over
Taiwan.
In November
2023, Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of
China’s Central Military Commission, visited Russia and met with Vladimir Putin,
who concluded their discussion by expressing “gratitude
for the strategic support from our Eastern friends during challenging times”
and pledging “firm support on the Taiwan issue at
critical moments.” In May 2025, Russian scholar Aleksandr Dugin,
often dubbed “Putin’s brain,” publicly urged Beijing to “swiftly unify Taiwan by force,” warning that further
delays would squander a strategic window. These statements underscore the
plausibility of a coordinated plan among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea
to ignite a global conflict.
Should Xi
Jinping press the “missile button,” it would effectively trigger a world war.
Launching such a conflict would require Beijing to be fully prepared for global
repercussions. Yet, the odds of victory for Xi are slim, and one can only hope
he possesses the wisdom to recognize the futility of a war that would harm others
without benefiting China.
具有實戰軍事專業的作者吉耐獅在專文〈解放軍火箭與飛彈對台灣的威脅〉中提醒我們：中共在2023年已經具有「體系擊破戰」（systems
destruction warfare）的能力，隨時可以對台灣發動攻擊關鍵設施與實施心理戰，現在等的是其他配合能力以及時機。
中共在2020年與伊朗簽署「全面戰略夥伴關係」，從此次伊朗攻擊以色列的模式看，中共侵略台灣將會是從多個地點以多種類型的火箭、飛彈與無人機，進行多波次、同時到達的飛彈飽和攻擊拉開序幕。
對這樣的飽和攻擊，包括美國在內的任何國家無法完全抵擋，必定有許多漏網飛彈落下，造成實質傷害或社會恐慌。中共人口太多，人命根本不成為戰術的顧慮。在「人命成本低」的思維下其戰術選擇更為激進，可能採取不計代價的「壓倒性打擊」策略。台灣一般平民就是要就地掩蔽或撤離，以躲過前幾波攻擊。
對中共而言，侵略台灣必須是出其不意的偷襲，在台灣鬆懈時下手。為此，中共準備會從外表看不出來—時間會拉長，步調很緩慢。中共火箭攻擊的指揮部設在遠離「當面」的安徽省，攻擊發起基地採遠近搭配的多層次攻擊：以福建為中心，以廣東、江西、浙江為第二圈，第三圈又遠達廣西、山東、吉林。
外界認為「中俄伊朝」原本的想定是：俄羅斯攻擊烏克蘭，美歐無暇東顧，甚至抽掉兵力馳援烏克蘭；在東亞真空下，習近平則發動侵略台灣與沖繩；配合朝鮮越過38度線南下，日本被孤立；中東則由伊朗、敘利亞擔任前鋒，加上約旦真主黨、葉門青年軍、哈瑪斯等對以色列發動攻擊。他們想以如此連動操作，讓西方戰術錯誤疲於奔命，以取得勝算。只是，美歐西方在烏克蘭沒有不孤注一擲的派兵、在中東代以允許以色列全面反擊哈瑪斯與現在的伊朗，讓地緣政治中所謂「不安定弧」的兩端的中俄，無法靠中央的伊朗連成一氣。結果是，中共發動對台戰爭遲疑至今。
2023年11月中共中央軍委副主席張又俠訪問俄羅斯，會見普丁時普丁最後一句話提醒習近平「感謝東方朋友在特殊時期的戰略支持，關鍵時刻我們也會在台海問題上給予堅定支持」。2025年5月間，有「普丁大腦」稱號的俄羅斯學者杜金（Aleksandr Dugin），公開呼籲北京「儘快武統台灣」，他認為一再拖延只會痛失時機。顯見前述四國聯手發動全球戰爭的想定並非空穴來風。
習近平的飛彈按鈕一旦按下，就是世界大戰了。習近平要有此準備，才能發動戰爭。這場戰爭，習近平一定會輸，希望他能有足夠智慧想清楚：損人不利己的狀況。
