【縛雞之見】
The news report wrote that the Cross-Strait crises will appear from 2019
to 2022, just in Xi Jinping's legitimate term (2018-2023).
It is simple. Xi repealed the
Chinese Constitution to allow him to be a permanent leader in 2018. No one can be sure what will happen in the
transition term, 2021-2022, the last two years of Xi’s second term.
「2019年至2022年間的危機時刻」,更具體的說,應該是習近平第二任期過半跨無限期的過渡期間,即2013+10-(1~2)=2021-2022。假使不製造危機,習近平無限任期的正當性就沒有了。
另外,有些長期事實,在被報導中放大了。也有夾雜無關緊要的,卻成為引起讀者情緒的關鍵點。
前者如「這些可貴的海外交流機會,回到台灣之後,也會被淹沒在所謂“黃埔精神”的軍風中。」,
後者如「劈頭就問美方代表,“台灣究竟要怎麼採購美國武器,才能向美國展現台灣自我防衛決心?”」。
美國軍方 強勢介入指導台軍的訓練、動員與戰略資源分配 ...轉自多維新聞網 多維新聞 20191017
美國在台協會(AIT)理事主席莫健(James F.
Moriarty)目前正在訪台,率領AIT的軍事組人員,密切訪查以及調研有關台軍的後備動員、訓練能量、戰略、管理等面向。
莫健此動作,這是為了執行美國《2019會計年度國防授權法案》(2019 NDAA)的第1257條的A項指示:“美國國防部長應該與台灣有關部門協調,對台灣的軍事力量,特別是台灣的後備動員能力進行全面評估。評估應提供建議,以提高台灣在以下領域的自衛能力效率以及效力,戰備與韌性:1) 人員管理與部隊發展,特別是後備部隊。2)招聘,訓練和軍事計畫。3)指揮、控制、通信和情報。4) 技術研發。5)國防物資的採購和流通。6) 戰略規劃和資源管理。”
《2019國防授權法》的此項規定,樣樣朝著台軍最令人詬病的毛病,逐一檢驗以及提出檢討與改進報告,事實上對台軍是很不堪的“指責”。故前臺灣國防部長、現任退輔會主委的馮世寬,在立院被立委問到“美國方面認為,台灣兵制的4個月訓練,訓練不出合格步槍兵”此事時,還怒氣衝衝地嗆聲表示:“這是美國人的偏見”,“美國人的批評不見得要聽,我們有自己的指示”,等語,也突顯出臺灣軍方面對美國想要介入改革到“骨子裡”時,負隅頑抗的勢力有多龐大。
美國對台灣軍事事務的改革,向來只能“心有餘而力不足”。由於世界各先進民主國家,都是由專業的文人領軍,而非採用退伍將領主導國防,台灣是民主國家中的特例,一向為“黃埔軍人”把持,維護所謂“光榮傳統”不遺餘力,所以訓練、戰術、準則和戰略,都包圍著這個由職業軍人所掌控的情境,而無法走出如同歐美日等國家,已經逐步要進入的第四波戰爭型態裡面。
研究軍事科學者皆知,“每一支軍隊,日日都在以上一場戰爭的經驗來做準備”。台軍久訓未戰,上一次大規模戰役是1958年的金門823炮戰,故在美軍於越戰結束、在1979年撤離台灣後,台軍幾乎沒有跟世界上有實戰經驗的部隊交流機會,近年來因為政治情勢改變,少批量的台軍部隊、個人才有與美軍私下訓練交流的機會,但是這些可貴的海外交流機會,回到台灣之後,也會被淹沒在所謂“黃埔精神”的軍風中。
台灣目前還維持著約20萬的地面部隊,其中可立即投入戰爭的約10萬餘名專業士兵,台灣國防部一直不斷強調兵員人數不夠、台灣必須再募更多部隊人數,以堅持“盤石戰略”,也就是固守防衛,灘岸殲敵的戰略大指標。事實上,這種戰略思考,是來自1958年金門炮戰的經驗,炮戰講究的是陣地固守、地下坑道靈活運用炮兵,需要大批人力固守在遼闊的台灣海邊,故才有“兵員不足”的現況,甚至因為人數過多、將國防預算的資源吃光光,台灣能夠投資在尖端武器的預算一直不到三成,維持許多大而無當的國防單位,就用去了將近七成的台灣人民納稅錢,這也是美方必須要檢討台軍“資源管理”的重中之重。
美國方面認為,要提升台灣的軍備,不斷因應台灣政府的政治走秀,出售武器給台灣,並不是一條有效率的路。故這幾年的《國防授權法》,對於軍售的著墨較小,且沒有明顯承諾,倒是對台軍的訓練、管理、效率、戰術、戰略、資源分配,有非常詳細的檢討條文,只是台軍方面對此檢討,內部是相當不以為然,態度的爆發,則以上述馮世寬的“反美”言論為大宗。
而在總統蔡英文身上,事實上也對美國的要求頗有怨言。蔡英文曾經派遣國安高層,在2018年台美國防工業論壇前夕,劈頭就問美方代表,“台灣究竟要怎麼採購美國武器,才能向美國展現台灣自我防衛決心?”這位美方代表事後對多維新聞無奈表示,這顯見蔡政府對國防上面的問題,幾乎毫無頭緒,只想應付美國,希望美國能夠放過台灣,因為蔡英文不想得罪台灣軍事將領的傳統勢力,但又想得到美國的認可,故希望能夠便宜行事,以採購軍火了事。
但是,這位代表表示,台灣的問題,不是買什麼武器就能夠解決的,台灣的問題在人,美國並不稀罕台灣買美國軍火的那個幾億美元。台灣政府如果不用科學與民主的方式來改革軍隊,一昧地聽任職業軍人吹噓和恐嚇,這樣無法完成台灣的完整防衛。美方的這個想法,如今已經開始要在台灣內地直接加強壓力,壓迫台灣在2019年至2022年間的危機時刻,能夠迅速改革軍隊,但是美方這樣的期待,目前看來局勢不容樂觀。 ...轉自多維新聞網http://www.dwnews.com/big5/...1571621915921...
SEC. 1257. STRENGTHENING TAIWAN'S FORCE READINESS.
(a) Defense Assessment.--The
Secretary of Defense shall, in
consultation with appropriate counterparts of Taiwan, conduct a
comprehensive assessment of Taiwan's military forces, particularly
Taiwan's reserves. The assessment shall provide recommendations to
improve the efficiency, effectiveness, readiness, and resilience of
Taiwan's self-defense capability in the following areas:
(1) Personnel management and force
development, particularly
reserve forces.
(2) Recruitment,
training, and military programs.
(3) Command, control,
communications and intelligence.
(4) Technology research and development.
(5) Defense article
procurement and logistics.
(6) Strategic planning
and resource management.
(b) Report Required.--
(1) In general.--Not
later than 1 year after the date of the
enactment of this Act, the Secretary of
Defense, in consultation
with the Secretary of
State, shall submit to the appropriate
congressional committees a
report containing each of the
following:
(A) A summary
of the assessment conducted pursuant
to subsection (a).
(B) A list of
any recommendations resulting from
such assessment.
(C) A plan for
the United States, including by using
appropriate security cooperation
authorities, to--
(i)
facilitate any relevant recommendations
from such
list;
(ii)
expand senior military-to-military
engagement and joint training by the
United States
Armed Forces
with the military of Taiwan; and
(iii)
support United States foreign military
sales and
other equipment transfers to Taiwan,
particularly
for developing asymmetric warfare
capabilities.
(2) Appropriate
security cooperation authorities.--For
purposes of the plan described
in paragraph (1)(C), the term
``appropriate security
cooperation authorities'' means--
[[Page 132 STAT. 2058]]
(A) section 311
of title 10, United States Code
(relating to
exchange of defense personnel);
(B) section 332
such title (relating to defense
institution building);
and
(C) other
security cooperation authorities under
chapter 16 of such
title.
(3) Appropriate congressional
committees.--In this
subsection, the term
``appropriate congressional committees''
means--
(A) the
congressional defense committees; and
(B) the
Committee on Foreign Relations of the Senate
and the Committee
on Foreign Affairs of the House of
Representatives.
SEC. 1258. SENSE OF CONGRESS ON TAIWAN.
It is the sense of Congress
that--
(1) the Taiwan
Relations Act (22 U.S.C. 3301 et seq.) and
the ``Six Assurances'' are
both cornerstones of United States
relations with Taiwan;
(2) the United States
should strengthen defense and security
cooperation with Taiwan to
support the development of capable,
ready, and modern defense forces necessary
for Taiwan to
maintain a sufficient
self-defense capability;
(3) the United States
should strongly support the
acquisition by Taiwan of
defensive weapons through foreign
military sales, direct
commercial sales, and industrial
cooperation, with a
particular emphasis on asymmetric warfare
and undersea warfare
capabilities, consistent with the Taiwan
Relations Act;
(4) the United States
should improve the predictability of
arms sales to Taiwan by
ensuring timely review of and response
to requests of Taiwan for
defense articles and defense services;
(5) the Secretary of
Defense should promote Department of
Defense policies concerning exchanges that
enhance the security
of Taiwan, including--
(A)
opportunities for practical training and
military exercises
with Taiwan; and
(B) exchanges
between senior defense officials and
general officers of
the United States and Taiwan
consistent with the
Taiwan Travel Act (Public Law 115-
135);
(6) the United States
and Taiwan should expand cooperation
in humanitarian assistance
and disaster relief; and
(7) the Secretary of
Defense should consider supporting the
visit of a United States
hospital ship to Taiwan as part of the
annual ``Pacific
Partnership'' mission in order to improve
disaster response planning
and preparedness as well as to
strengthen cooperation
between the United States and Taiwan.
中國國民黨黨軍的問題,被美國人直接挑起來了。替換軍中深藍血統,讓全新的台灣人主掌中華民國國軍,不再把自己當成中國人,當成中國軍,不再讓台灣人為外來政權而戰,才有可能徹底解決這些問題。
回覆刪除反攻大陸的大陸軍主義是其一,難捨既有權力是其二。
回覆刪除採用美軍系統,日後可協同作戰。
回覆刪除