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2018-07-24

若無美持續支持 吳釗燮:台易遭中國武力占領….. 中央社20180723


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I do not get it, the logic of Wu. 
He said “By itself, Taiwan exists outside China, Taiwan exists by itself, so there's no need for Taiwan to go beyond what it is right now.”(台灣靠自己,生存於中國之外,台灣靠自己生存,所以台灣沒有超越現狀的必要。)


If Taiwan exists by itself, it is is legitimate for Taiwan go chasing its independence and welfare without infringing on others.  That is logic.
Wu said "Therefore maintaining good relations with Taiwan is the key to have Taiwan as an example to the Chinese people, especially Chinese Catholics, that they can have freedom of religion one day."
It is an expectation, not anticipation.

Maybe what Wu said “not preparing” in “the Taiwan government is not preparing for a time when they no longer have any diplomatic partners” is true.


若無美持續支持 吳釗燮:台易遭中國武力占領…..  中央社20180723
中華民國外交部長吳釗燮接受美國CNN專訪表示,總統蔡英文決心維持兩岸現狀,而若無美國持續軍事支持,台灣易受北京武力占領。吳釗燮也表示,台灣不預期會失去所有邦交國

美國有線電視新聞網(CNN)報導,總統蔡英文領導的民主進步黨2016年執政以來,北京持續對台灣政府加大施壓力道。中國海軍1823在台灣海峽進行實彈演習,這是一系列軍演中最新舉措。解放軍傳聲筒「環球時報」引述專家表示,這場演習「針對台獨分裂分子量身訂製」

吳釗燮指出,這些實彈演習是「恫嚇台灣人民」行動的一部分。他說:「我們正試圖最大限度地加強與理念相同國家的合作,試圖與美國安全合作,以避免中國以為他們可以很快占領台灣。」

吳釗燮並表示,台灣政府認為對美關係近年來更加牢固,但是華府繼續在軍事和外交上支持台灣至關重要,「(如果)中國看到台灣的弱點,沒有獲得美國的支持,那麼他們會考慮啟動能夠占領台灣的方案」。

中國國家主席習近平尋求兩岸統一,然而吳釗燮表示,北京對付台灣的作為,與習近平所盼目的背道而馳,使台灣民意背離北京。

吳釗燮說:「他們說要贏得台灣民心,但他們所做所為..卻造就台灣一般民眾對中國政府的仇恨,把台灣往反方向推得越來越遠。」

美國總統川普政府執政初期曾出現台灣會不會成為華府和北京之間一顆棋子的疑慮,但經過一年半後,吳釗燮指出,台灣對於川普執政後台美關係日益密切感到欣慰。

「川普總統保持非常好的對台關係..並告訴我們,他們相信台灣不容被交易、民主不容被交易。」

被問到身兼民進黨主席的總統蔡英文會否推動台灣獨立時,吳釗燮表示,蔡總統決心與中國大陸維持現狀。他說:「我們要維持兩岸和平穩定..台灣靠自己,生存於中國之外,台灣靠自己生存,所以台灣沒有超越現狀的必要。

儘管友邦總數持續減少,吳釗燮堅稱台灣政府並不預期會有失去所有邦交國的一天。他說:「一些(改變的)國家重回我們身邊,表示中國沒有兌現財政上的承諾,也沒有兌現政治上的承諾。」

他提到:「中國給他們的,都是可以輕易毀棄的東西。

仍然承認台北而不承認北京的國家當中,梵蒂岡最具象徵意義,但是過去6個月以來,有關教廷可能正在考慮與北京建交的傳聞甚囂塵上。

吳釗燮表示,台灣仍然希望與梵蒂岡維持長期外交關係。

他說:「我們與梵蒂岡官員密切聯繫,告訴他們,要讓中國大陸可以普遍享有宗教自由,而台灣在這方面向來是盞明燈。因此,與台灣維繫良好關係是個關鍵,讓中國人民拿台灣做榜樣,尤其是中國的天主教徒,讓他們期待未來某一天將可享有宗教自由。」(譯者:何宏儒/核稿:陳亦偉)1070723



Taiwan vulnerable to Chinese invasion without US, foreign minister says….CNN 20180723
Taipei, Taiwan (CNN) Without continuing United States military support, Taiwan would be vulnerable to an armed takeover from Beijing, the island's foreign minister told CNN in an exclusive interview.

Taiwan Foreign Minister Joseph Wu told CNN the Taiwan government felt relations with the US had grown stronger in recent years, but it was vital for Washington to continue to support Taipei militarily and diplomatically.

"(If) the Chinese see the vulnerability of Taiwan, not getting US support, then they would be thinking about starting scenarios where they would be able to take Taiwan over," he said.

Despite Taiwan being self-governed for almost seventy years, the mainland Chinese government continues to view the island as an integral part of its territory.

Beijing has been ramping up pressure on the Taiwan government since President Tsai Ing-wen's Democratic Progressive Party, which traditionally favored independence, took power in 2016.

The Chinese navy has been conducting the latest in a series of live-fire military drills in the Taiwan Strait from Wednesday until Monday, which an expert quoted in state media tabloid Global Times said was "tailored for Taiwan separatists."

Wu said the live-fire drills were part of a campaign to "intimidate the Taiwanese people."

"We are trying to maximize our cooperation with like-minded countries, try to engage security cooperation with the US to prevent China from thinking that they can take Taiwan over just overnight," he said.

Beijing provoking 'hatred'
Beijing has long dreamed of reuniting Taiwan with the Chinese mainland.  In a nationalistic speech in March, President Xi Jinping described unification as "the aspiration of all Chinese people," while during a visit by US Secretary of Defense James Mattis in June, Xi said China would not give up "any inch of territory."

But Wu said China's actions against Taiwan were undermining any support for Xi's reunification efforts and turning public opinion against Beijing.

"They say they want to win the hearts and minds of Taiwanese people but what they're doing ...  is to create hatred among the regular Taiwanese people of the Chinese government.  It is pushing Taiwan further and further away," he said.

Early in the Trump administration there were questions over whether Taiwan would be used as a pawn between Washington and Beijing, given the latter's keen interest in returning the island to the fold.

But more than a year-and-a-half later, Wu said Taiwan is pleased with the growing closeness of Taiwan US relations under the Trump administration.

"President Trump maintains very good relations with Taiwan ...  they told us that they believe Taiwan is not tradeable, and democracy is not tradeable," he said.

Asked whether President Tsai, leading the traditionally pro-independence DPP party, would push for Taiwan independence, Wu said Tsai was determined to maintain "the status quo" with its mainland neighbor.

"We want to maintain peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait ...  By itself, Taiwan exists outside China, Taiwan exists by itself, so there's no need for Taiwan to go beyond what it is right now," he said.

Diplomatic battle
As part of their campaign of pressure, the Chinese government has been slowly chipping away at Taiwan's small number of remaining diplomatic allies around the world.  In May, both the Dominican Republic and Burkina Fasosevered ties with Taipei in exchange for Beijing.

But despite their dwindling number of allies globally, Wu insists the Taiwan government is not preparing for a time when they no longer have any diplomatic partners.

"Some countries (who switched) are coming back to us and saying they didn't get what China promised, they didn't get what China promised financially and they're not getting what China promised politically," he said.

"What China gave them is something which is easily destroyable."

The most symbolic country which still recognizes Taipei over Beijing is the Vatican, the tiny nation home to the leadership of the Catholic Church.

In the past six months, rumors have leaked out suggesting the Holy See might be considering switching its allegiance to the Beijing government but Wu said Taiwan still hoped the Vatican could remain their diplomatic partner for the long term.

"We stay in very close contact with Vatican officials, telling them what they want is to allow freedom of religion to prevail in mainland China, and Taiwan has been serving as a beacon in that aspect," he said.

"Therefore maintaining good relations with Taiwan is the key to have Taiwan as an example to the Chinese people, especially Chinese Catholics, that they can have freedom of religion one day."

1 則留言:

  1. 這兩天我才正在想, 吳釗燮 與 陳明通 兩人幾乎同時前後出現的兩場美國演講, "調性"一正一反, 似乎應該並列貼出一起看, 才比較能看出事情全貌,(若只看其中一者, 必生諸多疑惑)

    才在想而已, 果不其然, 雲大已將兩者並列貼出以作對比 (不愧是雲大 靜觀棋局的高敏銳度!)

    綜合這幾日各位大俠的不同觀察角度, 激發出我一種綜合式解讀觀點如下:

    演講對照組: 吳釗燮 vs 陳明通

    A(1).外交部長__(吳釗燮)__講稿內容___(潛在主要訴求對象: 美國)___ 內容強調重點: 台灣主體性獨立、親美遠中、提升美台合作關係(聯美抗中)。

    A(2).陸委會主委__(陳明通)__講稿內容___(潛在主要訴求對象: 中國)___ 內容強調重點: 中華民國 與 台灣 並存, (藉模糊的ROC之名"搭橋"), 釋出中台未來兩岸溝通與合作善意。

    這邊順便解讀一下事情A(2)可能的背景: 由於中方主動封鎖(拒絕)陸委會之兩岸正常溝通管道, 陳明通被迫必須間接透過在美國公開演說場合, 一方面向對岸釋放善意溝通訊號, 二方面也藉此向美國政府作態(及讓美國"見證"):「台灣已照美國一向指示的"要好好與對岸溝通對話", 我現就在你"面前"先主動做到了, 要是對岸再拒絕, 到時候可別再怪我!」, 三方面, 也藉此"安撫一下"(不得罪)華府勢力仍殘存的季辛吉派傾中美國官員圈, 順便透過他們的親中關係管道或能幫忙牽線恢復兩岸溝通,而"中華民國"名義則是目前兩岸可能達成溝通所僅剩的雙方最大"公約數"(畢竟演戲須有戲服與面具啊! 不管它看起來多醜陋、多邪惡!)

    現在假設: 他們兩人講稿內容對調, 其餘不變, 那麼問題就真正大條了 :

    B(1).外交部長__(吳釗燮)__講稿內容___(潛在主要訴求對象: 美國)___ 內容強調重點: 中華民國 與 台灣並存, (藉模糊的ROC之名"搭橋") 釋出中台未來兩岸溝通與合作善意。
    (推測反應: 美國執政新主流鷹派聽完超不爽)

    B(2).陸委會主委__(陳明通)__講稿內容___(潛在主要訴求對象: 中國)___ 內容強調重點: 台灣主體性獨立、親美遠中、提升美台合作關係(聯美抗中)。
    (推測反應: 中國聽完直接暴怒加重報復)

    如此, 大家是否已經看出: 關鍵或許就在於「單位、任務、角色」屬性 與 「講稿內容」之間的"匹配"恰當與否才是重點所在.

    也許有人會說: 說白了, 這豈不就是「見人說人話、見鬼說鬼話」(沒錯! 就是這樣)

    試想, 若反過來: 「見人說鬼話, 見鬼說人話」這兩場對美對中的重要溝通任務能成功嗎 ? 肯定全失敗!!

    一旦全面執政必面臨的"執政現實"與"須面面俱到"的壓力(這與純革命理想大不同), 也加上所謂「兩大之間難為小」的困境!

    現在問題就出在:

    當說給"鬼"聽的鬼話, 被圍觀的"人"群撿去聽, "人界"聽了很不舒服, "人界"會開始懷疑: 派出演講者的老闆可能「內心偏向"鬼界"」

    當說給"人"聽的人話, 被圍觀的"鬼"群撿去聽, "鬼界"聽了很不舒服, "鬼界"會開始懷疑: 派出演講者的老闆可能「內心偏向"人界"」

    「"人界"聽了很不舒服」之新聞迴響實例, 在這兩天的諸位大俠留言已貼出多則, 不再贅述, 以下則是提供 「"鬼界"聽了很不舒服」之新聞迴響實例:

    (聯合報新聞評論) 吳釗燮專訪傾美 陳明通對陸釋善意「破功」
    https://udn.com/news/story/11311/3268918

    注意: 上述新聞文末轉述: 「大陸國台辦主任劉結一日前回應陳明通的美國發言,是「說一套做一套不行,我們聽其言、觀其行」,他還說民進黨「去中國化」、「漸進式台獨」.也許吳釗燮的發言,才是民進黨政府內心真實的想法。...」

    公開場合演講的兩難處境在於: 是全向性放送, 非指向性放送. 原本訴求對象是"鬼"的「鬼話篇演講」, 人界也聽得到。 而原本訴求對象是"人"的「人話篇演講」, 鬼界也聽得到. 稍一拿捏不慎, 就會造成"人界"與"鬼界"兩邊聽了都不爽。

    同樣的演講, 藍(紅)方與綠方出現的解讀角度剛好完全相反, 眼前蔡英文執政團隊似乎已陷入在她即將就任前曾有人預言的「藍紅營將會視她太親美反中, 而綠營卻嫌她綠得不夠綠, 甚懷疑她暗地有親中傾向」之尷尬處境, 這就是前面所說的: 一旦全面執政必面臨的"執政現實"與鋪天蓋地而至的"面面俱到"壓力, 也無怪乎有人說過: 「搞革命階段很容易可以當勇猛爆衝的英雄, 但執政階段則如"走鋼索"的狗熊!動輒得咎, 鋼索上不管往左往右偏失一寸當場即粉身碎骨!」

    如果同一時間(前後), 只出現 陳明通 而沒出現 吳釗燮 的演講. 那麼大家對蔡英文及其核心執政團隊的「意識形態」開始感到憂慮是對的. 但實際上是兩者幾乎同時(前後)出現, 且各司其職依其「單位、任務、角色」講其屬性"相匹配"的話, 如此整體宏觀看待, 或許大家的疑慮感會少些(一旦拆開來分別單獨看待則疑慮感必昇高)。

    所以, 大家請稍安勿躁, 可以繼續保持觀察蔡英文及其核心執政團隊, 過程中, 大家一起持續 Brainstorm 對"劇情"提出不同疑問、互相交換"劇情"研判觀點也是很好的, 但因"戲"還很長, 距離可以下結論的結局恐怕還要等很久, 只好請各位看倌繼續耐心往下看唄!

    也是很喜歡看戲的求悟老頑童, 此刻心中忽然想到:「若見諸相非相,則見如來。」這句果然最難悟 (引用此經句, 盼各位大俠莫以宗教立場排斥之, 就當是開放性的純哲理視之吧!)

    from 楓巢求悟

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